STHS Commissioners: Handling The Off Season. Part 2 – Rerates

Math *can* be fun. Shame my Grade 12 Math teacher didn't think so.

Rerates can be handled in four ways; NHL Rerates, SIM Rerates, Hybrid Rerates and Manual Rerates. Three of them are relatively quick and painless, the fourth takes a lot of time and in my opinion is the most worthwhile option.

NHL Rerates are pretty easy to come by. Players are rated according to their NHL performance, whoever rerates the players releases a roster pack and the Commish uploads it to their league. It’s fast. It’s easy. It removes the Commissioner and GMs from the process as much as possible, which can be good or bad depending on the league; it also removes SIM performance entirely from the equation. A crafty Commish can typically find player packs for any year, in any style and of any colour; there are even packs out there that cover the KHL, AHL, ECHL, CHL and European Elite Leagues. NHL Rerates work for a lot of leagues, but they’ll have the hardest time being successfully implemented in a retro league, because there is absolutely no reward for individual player performance and scouting for the draft becomes a little trivialized. These Player Packs are also amazing starting points for any league in its first season.

SIM Rerates are my only knock against the STHS simulator. From my experience they tend to skew league balance after one or two seasons and the Commissioners end up combing through the ratings anyways. They are quick and are completely dependent on player performance. They’re good to have idly running in the background during the course of the season – with a huge attribute choke, maybe +/- 2 in any direction, but to rely on them for the big job at the end of the season is suicidal.

In leagues that prefer the automation, but like to maintain a particular level of control the Hybrid Rerate method is best route to take. Pick one of the first two methods covered (typically NHL Rerates) and manually adjust ratings to reflect league performance or balance out squads. I’ve been in leagues that give a 60/40 split in favour of NHL rerates, player performance still matters, but in the hands of an unskilled nob a roster can still produce high quality players.

And finally, we’re going to be spending the most time becoming intimate with Manual Rerates. This method is scary and takes a lot of time. Allows you the most control and if GM involvement is your cup’o tea it’s easy to integrate – we don’t cover the GM integration in this post, but we do in the next one. GMs will say you’re bat-shit insane for trying this and they’re probably right.

It took a few seasons of refinement, but this is the most effective method I’ve come up with. I usually give myself a week to do everything – some GMs will protest the league being shut down for a week, tell them that this is their chance to formulate an off season plan and write articles that’ll contribute to off season GM rewards.

First things first:

Mass Editing is your friend! My method requires you to go through the entire list of players twice. The first time through can be done entirely through mass editing.

Remember to always backup your rosters before attempting manual rerates, because you never know.

Rerates will be divided into two categories: Potential and Performance.

Divide player ratings into two categories: Core Stats (CK, SK, ST, DU, PH, SC and DF) and Arbitrary Stats (FG, DI, FO)

The range I typically apply to any given statistical rerate is +/-3. Before bonuses, the most any one stat can be boosted by an excellent season is +6 (for both the performance and potential rerate) and the worst it can get is -6 for a disaterous season. It chokes off wild attribute swings after one season of good performance and encourages long term statistical development. A good exmaple of a player who might have experienced a huge, but ultimately undeserved, attribute jump is Anson Carter, he had an excellent season in 05-06, but couldn’t repeat the performance once he signed with the Blue Jackets the following season.

Rerating Potential and Age (Core Stats only):

Potential and Age walk hand in hand. If it’s one thing that is common through every Fantasy Hockey League it’s that youth is valued – almost above all else. A player’s potential can become a universal indication of when they’ve stepped out of the early stages of their career development and into their prime, it’ll also begins to put pressure on older stars who may not be able compete at the same level they did earlier in their career. PO becomes the initial cornerstone of the Rerate process by determining what bonuses a player will receive based solely on a:

PO between 99-90
+3CK, +3SK, +3ST, +3DU, +3SC, +3DF

PO between 89-75
+2CK, +2SK, +3ST, +2DU, +2SC, +2DF

PO between 74-60
+1CK, +1SK, +1ST, +1DU, +1SC, +1DF

PO between 59-40
No statistical changes, the player is considered to be in the prime of their career and is Rerated based entirely on performance.

PO between 39-20
-1CK, -1SK, -1ST, -1DU, -2SC, 0DF

PO between 19-0
-3CK, -2SK, -2ST, -2DU, -3SC, -1DF

The whole process can be done quickly and painlessly through Mass Edition, if PO is between: and modify . Repeat the process for a few seasons and you have a good base for a natural development curve. Importantly it forces players to eventually age and slow down and gives a less immediate jump to prospects. A top end prospect would then have 8 seasons before hitting the point where their Rerate is based solely on performance and a statistical jump like this: +15CK, +15SK, +18ST, +15DU, +15SC, +15DF. Or take a player with 69SC up to 84SC if his PO is 99. This also gives a player about 14 years before they start to slow down.

All of this is done before considering a player’s performance.

Remember to make a backup and save your progress.

Rerating Performance (Both Core and Arbitrary stats) for Farm and Pro:

I like the tackle this one on a team-by-team basis, it requires a little bit of prep work and can be very long winded; it’s easier to come back to the process knowing you just finished rerating the Senators as opposed to sitting down and trying to remember which Smith you left off on. A reminder, I recommend typically suspend trading for a week or so while I plug away at the Rerates. Most GMs are forgiving. If you’ve assigned a player agent, it’s also a good idea to distract GMs with RFA presigning.

First things first:

DO NOT hesitate to give players minuses for performance. GMs are going to whine and moan about any attribute decrease and make up any excuse to reverse the decision, this is why GMs also have a little bit of control later on in the process. As mentioned in Part 1 of this series, I like to keep player ratings suppressed as much as logically possible.

Find the highest and lowest point for every statistical category (on both farm and pro) and work out an average, this’ll give you a good indication of where a player’s performance sits amongst his peers in the league. +3 attribute increases being reserved for the absolute upper crust of the league.

Before I tackle each team I also find an average of the team’s major statistics. Goals, assists, points, +/-, SH%, PIMs, Hits. A good player performing poorly on a good team may experience a decrease in skill, whereas a good player performing poorly against the league average, but well against his teammates would experience a small increase.

If a player has played more time on the Farm team, use his farm stats. I tend not to be to generous with playoff performance, but I do factor it in.

Now for the tough part. Starting with the first team in the league – usually Anaheim if the rosters page is in alphabetical order – begin to rate every single attribute for every single player.

+3 – Player meets and exceeds expectations
+2 – Ahead of the pack, but not the top
+1 – On par
0 – Par
-1 – Below average
-2 – Didn’t perform up to expectations
-3 – The season to forget about

A brief rundown of what to consider with each attribute:

CK – Hits
FG – PIMs
DI – PIMs, hits
SK – Age, Time on Ice
ST – Hits, shots blocked
DU – Games played, Time on Ice
PH – Assists
FO – Faceoffs taken, FO%
PA – Assists,
SC – Goals, shots, SH%
DF – +/-, shots blocked

Now you see how this portion can accelerate or stymie prospect development, and hopefully the benefit to having a strong farm system. (A tip to any GM who has made it this far: If you’re in a league that takes its farm system seriously, do everything you can to stock your farm system with quality. Not only will it give you plenty of depth options, but also a quality place to develop your youth and you will consistently be a contender in some way or another.)

At the end of it all jump into Mass Edition again and decrease PO by 5 and hand out +2LD, +3EX for every player in the league and for the love of fuck save your work.

Captains, Alternates and The Playoffs. (EX and LD only)

At the beginning of every season I ask that the GMs declare a team captain and two Alternates. I toss the names onto a spreadsheet and check the spreadsheet at the end of the season. Captains who remain on the same squad the entire season receive a +2 LD bonus, Alternates receive a +1. If a Captain or Alternate was traded during the course of the season, they do not receive the bonus.

For teams that were playoff bound, I typically gave a +1 EX for each player who made it to the post season (and actually played a game – not scratched). I continually toyed with adding higher EX bonuses the deeper teams made it into the post season, but it became to cumbersome to keep track of and with the other bonuses out there, I abandoned the idea. Do keep it in mind when combing through teams during the Manual Rerate process, but don’t put a lot of weight into it.

Award Bonuses:

Most leagues I’ve been in tend to have an award system that’s closely aligned with NHL awards. Sadly the leagues never tend to go much further than that. “Hooray, you won an award!” and are sent on your way. I like to give Rerate bonuses to players who receive individual awards. It’s usually something small, but chances are that if a player scores the most goals in the league during the regular season he’s already recieving a +3 (plus his potential modifier) to his SC.

The Award bonus system typically worked something like this:

Hart Memorial Trohpy: +1 to all Core Stats, +2 to LD
Lady Bing Memorial Trophy: +2 to DI
Calder Memorial Trophy: +1 to all Core Stats
Art Ross Trophy: +1PH, +1SC, +1PA
James Norris Memorial Trophy: +1DF, +1ST, +1CK, +1PH
Frank J. Selke Trophy: +1DF, +1ST, +1CK
Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy: +1SC, +1PH

Once those bonuses are applied, you’re done with the Manual Rerates.

Next: GM player Rerates and Free Agency.

STHS Commissioners: Handling The Off Season. Part 1 – Entry Draft

Shame it never looks like this online

I’ve decided to put all of my STHS knowledge to type through a multi-post series of how to handle the off season. A handy guide for every Fantasy Hockey Commissioner out there to sift through, absorb and if they so choose, integrate into their leagues. The plan is to release the posts in four parts covering; The Draft, Rerates, Free Agency and GM Rewards. Inside those posts I’ll cover a few keys points in detail and provide advice on how to integrate and enhance the league experience.

There are going to be parts of this post that might seem a little abstract in concept, but hang tight, everything will be detailed and explained. If you have any questions, please feel free to comment and if you want to reproduce the blog elsewhere, please have the courtesy of letting me know.

Finally, if you’re on the STHS development team, thank-you for programming this awesome little simulator. Thank-you for taking the FHL concept and improving on it ten-fold. I haven’t had the chance to try version 2, but it looks great.

Without further delay. We start our journey with the first thing every GM on the outside looking in during the playoffs is looking forward to and one of the first things to be handled by every Commissioner during the off season. The Entry Draft.

Buildup to the Draft:

A commissioner always needs to be thinking ahead. The off season can be a very scary place, filled with high expectations and pressure from GMs to jump into the next season as soon as possible. I’ve seen more leagues shut down due to “pissing and moaning” from GMs during the off season that lead to a stressed out Commish pulling the plug than I care to recall. It’s during the playoffs and early off season that Fantasy Hockey Leagues go through hefty GM turnover, they get bored, depressed and agitated by being on the outside looking in. Think of it like this; if you didn’t make the playoffs, would you have a reason to check the website every day during the postseason? No. One of the smartest things a Commish can do is give his GMs something to do when they’re not busy, and generating hype for the Entry Draft is one of the best ways to keep ’em interested.

How?

This may only work in Retro leagues, but let your GMs scout, rank and rate their own prospects. I got into the habit of rating the Entry Draft class by the quarter mark of the season. If the league is playing through the 1992 season, there should be no surprises regarding the quality of the upcoming draft. At the halfway mark I’d release a series of lists of names divided into Skaters and Goaltenders, North American and European, rank them much in the same way the NHL Central Scouting does and release the list like this:

You’ll notice that the list won’t tell the GMs much. Player names, position, the ballpark estimate on a few key stats and estimated potential. (Note: I like to rank by potential and default EX and LD to 25 unless a player is a bit older. When I’m outlining the Rerate process you’ll see why.)

Around the trade deadline I’ll modify the list ever-so-slightly to reveal a few more stats, update the potentials and redo the rankings. From there I begin to encourage the GMs to send in their impressions of how the prospects are going to look once created. And let your GMs influence *how* these players turn out. If a GM rates a Power Forward differently than you do, take a reasonable average between the two. Never stray to far from your master list! Giving GMs a little bit of control over how players turn out from the draft will keep them interested. The more immersed and invested your GMs become, the less likely they are to leave during league downtime or treat their franchises like John Ferguson Jr would.

I also like to keep a cap on the highest any one stat can be rated for a prospect, usually it’s 70 and you’ll see why when we get to the Rerating Potential portion of this series.

Why GMs would want to do this:

Activity bonuses. Activity Points are good for bonus GM Rerate Points, Cash and Reputation. Activity Points, GM Rerate Points and Reputation may be foreign concepts right now; I’ll cover them in a later post about rewarding GMs. If you give GMs a clear benefit for submitting lists the more likely they are to do so.

How to encourage late round gems:

I like to think that under different circumstances players like Alexandre Daigle and Jason Bonsignore would have turned out differently, and in a fantasy hockey league why not give them the opportunity at an NHL career? To prime this in an STHS league I tend to inflate the potential (PO) of a player who was highly regarded but didn’t pan out and keep his core stats at a minimum. The way the Rerate System works (outlined later) the rewards for a high potential will boost his stats over time and if the player performs (likely on the farm club) the performance bonuses will rate the player well enough to let him climb the depth chart.

It’s a longer road, but the potential for payoff is there. This is also why it’s good to encourage a full farm system. The cycle of players can be portrayed realistically and it gives depth and support to the professional club. Veterans who are too low on the depth chart to be regulars on the Pro club can also serve the auxiliary purpose of mentoring youth on the Farm.

In practice the concept works a little backwards to how it actually happens in the NHL; smart GMs will know that you can build a solid franchise from a healthy mix of blue-chip prospects and late bloomers. It can also keep GMs interested during the later draft rounds.

A lot like…

“Off The Board” draft picks:

These irritate the fuck out of me. Most GMs will protest if you choose to get rid of them and keeping them in the league is another way to encourage activity, but be warned, they create horrible imbalance when GMs exploit the system – and it’s easy to exploit.

For those of you who don’t know what an “Off The Board” draft pick is, it’s when a GM selects a player who wasn’t originally drafted by an NHL club, but rather signed as a free agent and made his name through performance. The NHL is currently filled with examples of very talented players who were overlooked – for whatever reason, in a lot of cases because they took the college route – and have now made a name for themselves as star performers. Such as; Martin St. Louis, Dan Boyle, Chris Kunitz and Nicklas Backstrom.

If a GMs is interested in exploiting the system, they’ll stock up on late round draft picks and rattle off a bunch of players no one else even thought about when they pick five times in a row. Usually with an air of smugness around them.

Why?

Because the idea of who can and cannot be drafted becomes very hazy if it’s not outlined very specifically. That’s why I preferred not to include them in my league. You can draft from a very specific list of players who were actually drafted and ranked, everyone else is a free agent.

Off The Board draft picks also make life hell for Commissioners who like to pre-rank prospects and have the ratings done ahead of time.

If you want to establish a specific position on these types of picks, instead of outright banning them, age or the year they signed their first professional contract are two routes to take.

Ways to run the draft:

There are three effective ways to run a draft. Both have their pros and their cons..

1. Forum or Email Draft. (GMs either email their lists or post their picks to a forum)
– Pros: Removes the pressure of everyone needing to be online at the same time. Effectively takes care of the “time zone problem”. Allows for a lot of calculated inter-round trading. Gives the GMs time to seriously consider the players they’re drafting. A lot of work can be done behind the scenes to make the rest of the off season easier, like rerates.

– Cons: They take forever. Sometimes over-trading can occur with eager GMs. The league risks losing a lot of off season momentum if GMs take their time making selections.

2. Live Draft. (Getting everything done in a mass MSN or IRC chat)
– Pros: Gets everything done in a relatively short period of time. Is very exciting for the GMs involved. Generates a lot of shrewd business dealings. Gets everyone together and as a result generates league articles and long winded trade talks. It’s all and all healthy for the league if pulled off correctly.

– Cons: Can sometimes be a logistical nightmare – an unprepared Commish will sink in a Live Draft. As the draft drags on some GMs eventually get moody or pissy. Arranging a convenient time for everyone to meet up can be a pain – this is where you run into the “Time Zone” problem, 6pm in Vancouver is 9pm in Toronto and while the person in YVR can stick around for a few hours the person out East may not. If a GM misses the draft, doesn’t send in a selection list and the Commish is a vindictive prick a team’s future can be destroyed. (Pro Tip: Don’t be a vindictive prick.)

3. NHL Aligned Draft. (Drafting order in your league follows the NHL player selecton order to the letter. EG: If Nashville wins the lottery draft, selects first and it happens to be 2007, they select; Kane, Brennan, Katic, Vaive, Kempe, Kalinski and Phillips. The top five selections will always be: Kane, Van Riemsdyk, Turris, Hickey and Alzner.)
– Pros: Is an easy and quick no BS way to conduct the draft.

– Cons: Completely negates 90% of the purpose for this article. Is hard to pull off in Retro Leagues and any league with less than 30 teams (or the amount of NHL teams in the league for the year played). Generates a lot of junk prospects and a lot of work for the Commish if he’s undertaking manual rerates. A lot of GMs will feel completely removed from the drafting process, which can lead to picks being devalued.

I prefer a combination of the first two. Live Draft the first three (or four) rounds and conduct the rest of the draft on the forums or through email.

Ranking and rating prospects:

I like to keep player ratings as low as possible. Not so low that the difference between Daniel Paille and Sidney Crosby is a handful of Overall (OV) points, but low enough that very few players stick far out from the pack and even fewer players start that way. Chronically high overalls stifle leagues very fast. If a team is full of players who are routinely sitting in the 80’s for Overall (OV) regardless of where they sit on the depth chart it looks bad. If a player like Donald MacLean is created with his Scoring (SC) in the mid 70’s and an OV to match, where does that put Jarome Iginla’s SC and where does that stat go after a few seasons if Iggy performs poorly? If everyone starts rated well, then you’re that much closer to the rating ceiling and that much more likely to hit it.

Keeping overalls low also gives your superstars room to grow. Keep in mind that it’s impossible – or you have to be bat-shit insane – to start with a ratings pack made entirely from scratch. The players you create from the first season forward are going to have a huge impact on the outlook of the league and if you want to maintain control over player ratings, this is where you start.

I’ll cover that in detail during part two of the off season process “Rerates”.

~J

Short: 2010 Stanley Cup Finals Prediction

The Chicago Blackhawks vs Philadelphia Flyers for the Stanley Cup?

Chicago in six. Conn Smyth; Jonathan Toews. (Though I feel that Dustin Byfuglien should win the trophy because of the amazing job he’s done getting under everyone’s skin.)

I know it’s not an elaborate prediction with a whole load of “what ifs” and conspiracies, but sometimes a guy just wants to predict.

~J

Short: One Way To Get Good FHL Re-Rates

Awesome Fan Mail looks like this.

To the person who searched “how to get a good re-rate in fhl simulator” and came across my blog,

Here’s the easiest way:

During the course of the season. Exploit the Farm Streak and Slump settings. If the Commish has the option turned on and has lax rules surrounding waivers you can freely send players back and forth. Typically on the farm (with the option turned on.) you’re able to boost a player 2 or 3 OV points based on his performance. If you mill this back and for, over the course of the season it could be good for 8 or 9 OV points. If the player being sent down is good enough, he’ll also make the performance of his linemates much better, meaning they’ll experience a bump in OV as well. If the Commish has tighter waiver regulations, your operating window is a little smaller, so exploit it to the fullest.

As for the end of season re-rates. Good luck with that. FHL is notoriously bad for applying logical automatic re-rates. You’re better served by being in a league with some sort of manual re-rate system or GM controlled re-rate system. If you’re looking for artificial end-of-season boosts in OV (I know an 80OV player looks more attractive than a player with 79OV, regardless of how that player will actually perform, and are easier to trade/flip for assets.) IT and ST are weighted strongly, dump extra points in there. Also, depending on the attitude of the Commish, you might be able to eek out extra points by actively debating your re-rates.

~J

Even in Olympic Years I Like The IIHF WHC

Someone please sign this guy, he's giving the puppy dog eyes.

Despite the controversy and perceived “lack of talent” at the World Hockey Championships this year, I’ve been having good time watching this “B” tournament, and for all the hell that has been raised over players like Crosby, Lidstrom and Backstrom declining invitations, I don’t miss them one bit.

If I were a pro scout for the NHL, I would use this year’s “Olympic Drain” on the WHC as a chance to look for potential NHL talent. It’s not very often you see this mix of NHL talent, from third line grinders to superstars and players presently assigned to European Elite Leagues playing against one another. It’s very easy to discount a guy like Dennis Endras during the Olympics when he lets in seven goals against Team Canada during a qualifying game. It’s easy to write off Germany in this scenario because of who they’re playing against, but people need to remember that NHL teams do not have forwards like Eric Staal, Ryan Getzlaf and Cory Perry playing together on the third line. Yes, the NHL has the highest level of hockey talent in the world, but it takes a careful combing through 30 teams to create a national squad. When you have this perceived “watering down” of typically powerhouse teams you actually get a true sense of how some players would react playing against what might be a really good NHL club.

When you watch a gem of a game like the Quarterfinal between Germany and Switzerland, it becomes obvious that these countries actually have the potential to produce NHL caliber players. Look at how the Swiss handled Canada’s “C-squad” (I’d also like to point out that a lot of Canucks were quick to boast that a “C-squad” could have won us a gold medal. Maybe this will level out our hockey egos a little.) it should begin to become clear that in another world Martin Pluss might have developed into an amazing late round gem. Germany fared a lot better against a “stacked” Russian team than Canada did and actually beat the Swiss.

So while GMs like Brian Burke are suggesting that the International Ice Hockey Federation cancels the tournament due to an “Olympic Drain” and articles like “Saying No To Your Country” are tossed out there by communications directors like Szymon Szemberg – suggesting that players who “decline the call” forgot the national systems that made them millions and have become spoiled. I say “relax” and stop insulting the players who actually accepted the invites. Let the other nations have a chance at testing their own national development programs instead of worrying about playing against these stacked superstar squads that would crush them like ants, and while our own superstars are at home recharging their emotional batteries, enjoy the stellar hockey that is still yet to be played.

~J

Tips To Rebuilding A Successful Sim Hockey Franchise

The two most common Fantasy Hockey Simulators.

The following post applies to any sim hockey league that is ongoing and where you are in direct control of your line-ups, Free Agent market and Entry Draft. I use STHS and FHL specifically.

Everyone wants to be an armchair General Manager. From the beginning of professional sports there have been old men saying how they’d run the show if they were in charge. Fortunately with the dawn of the Internet age you can be in charge! A few teams of programmers have set out to give in to every armchair GM’s wet dream. As a result we have programs like STHS (Simon T Hockey Simulator) and FHL (Fantasy Hockey League) that allow us to play the long and drawn out simulated GM/Coach experience against other players.

I’ve been consistently involved in these leagues for over a decade and even ran my own for two seasons – only recently hanging up the e-commish hat when time was no longer on my side.

Today I’m going to cover a few points to consider when you’ve just tried so hard to win that coveted championship for so many seasons that you need to rebuild or you have been handed a franchise that needs to be turned from a laughing stock to a respectable contender.

Understand Your League
Why is this point number one? Because of the huge amount of variables to consider when tackling the challenge of rebuilding a franchise. League information should be common knowledge by the time you accept any sort of GM duty, but if it’s one lesson I learned from running a league, don’t assume anything. The key thing to look for is how players are rated and rerated. If the league follows NHL conventions and rerates players based on NHL performance, you’re in luck. A few months glued to Hockey Night in Canada, TSN and NHL.com should be enough to arm you with a solid amount of player information. (Also I’d like to assume that if you’re willingly involved in a sim hockey league, you’re at least interested in hockey.) If the league has sim rerates (an automated and sometimes unrealistically evil process) then you need to focus on stocking a healthy blend of vets to efficiently develop the youth and enough of both to fully stock your pro and farm teams. The same goes for manual rerates. Anytime you’re in a position where the sim performance of your roster directly influences their development you want to make sure your youth is adequately supported and given enough ice time to rack up some impressive numbers. Also make sure that if your league is rerated manually that you have a VERY CLEAR understanding of how those rerates are going to be done. In my league we did manual rerates, it was a pain in the ass and took a lot of time, but the formula I developed balanced age/potential/performance very nicely, we also gave GMs a bit of control over the ratings. It was largely successful, but it’d never work with FHL.

The Draft
This can be either the most intriguing or mind numbing portion of the game. Some leagues speed up the process by auto drafting to some degree or another. Other leagues will draw the process out by manually drafting every pick of every round. Your approach to drafting can easily make or break any momentum. You know that GM who consistently harasses you to add a mid-round draft pick to the end of every deal? That GM has figured out that he can either combine that pick with another mid-round pick to trade up to an earlier selection, or that two mid-level prospects have a better chance of turning into professional assets than one mid-level prospect. Take the draft seriously, collect and guard your picks. If you’re going to rebuild that first rounder is going to make things a hell of a lot easier and the more youth you can stockpile the brighter the future looks.

If you have complete control over how you draft, assess your long term needs and draft accordingly. Keep in mind that goalies – in my opinion, the key to any successful rebuild – tend to take a little while longer to develop. Research is key! Sometimes leagues will post draft lists, typically if they’re playing a few seasons back, but for modern sim leagues, sites like Hockeysfuture and MyNHLdraft are outstanding resources for scouting prospects.

League size and number of draft rounds is also important. You have a better chance of picking up late round gems if the league is smaller.

Free Agency
GMs always walk a fine line during Free Agency when orchestrating a rebuild. One of the unfortunate side effects of Sim Hockey is that the “Rangers Approach” to free agency actually works and is remarkably easy to pull off. I don’t advocate using it. For those who are unaware of the tactic, you basically use your advantageous financial position to purchase your way to a championship. A lot of leagues I’ve been in have fail-safes against this sort of activity, but in leagues where the most money offered guarantees signing the player, then fly at ‘er you douche. The long term downfall is the complete lack of development for existing youth and a potentially long string of late round draft picks. Also other GMs may completely cut you out of trade talks unless you look to unload assets for cheap. Pushing yourself right up against the salary cap is never a good idea.

Another – wiser – tactic is to stagger your signings to plug your holes and flush out your depth on pro and farm. I find that if I’m developing a top pairing defenseman I like to sign a veteran to pair with him. Someone that complements the line or pairing and above all someone with enough leadership and experience to even out the line to compensate for mistakes. A good real world example is Crosby and Kunitz playing with Guerin.

Trading
Playoff bound teams absolutely love experienced players who can step into key positions for the playoff run. It could even be your love of the playoffs that stuck you into the rebuilding position. If you know your going to be e-golfing early, then you’re going to want to get rid of those looming Unrestricted Free Agents. If only to free up some room on the payroll to resign some of your younger players and free up roster spots. The trade deadline should be seen as a way to preemptively stock your assets for the off season with either prospects or draft picks.

–

Thank-you for reading. If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to comment below. If you’d like me to write on other sim hockey topics, all you need to do is ask. I’ll probably make this into a reoccurring series.

~J

Do Not Listen To Your Fans

This may happen again.
(Not anytime soon mind you)

The Edmonton Oilers will have a new AHL affiliate team, The Oklahoma City Barons, for the 2010-2011 season. The team was unveiled Wednesday by GM Kevin Lowe, who was also sporting a new outlook about the development of the franchise, “We’ve got to get back to what we did for a lot of years. We’ve got to get back to our basic principles of drafting and development, get out of the free agent business.”

About time! It’s a shame to think that it took four years of missing the playoffs after an improbable run to the finals in 2006 to figure that out. Made bittersweet by finishing so poorly last season the Oil were awarded the top pick in the 2010 Entry Draft, after their huge free agent acquisition came down with an injury and exposed one of numerous holes on the roster.

Lowe is a few seasons late, but I don’t blame him for taking the long route. I blame the city of Edmonton and the moniker that proud residents shout from the rooftops as they hurl molotovs at buildings on Whyte Ave whenever they win “City of Champions”. In ’06 Edmonton was given a taste of something they hadn’t experienced since the 90’s, success. Appropriately the fans demanded nothing less than another spectacular run to the finals and the brass did their best to appease them, including several key free agent signings and a series of record setting offersheets.

Unknowingly proving a very important point about professional sports.

Do not listen to your fans. Fans are fickle, shortsighted and bipolar creatures, I live in Vancouver where this theory is proved in abundance and have lived in Toronto where it’s a way of life. Some fans believe the only way to achieve success in the NHL is to purchase your way to The Cup. We call them Rangers fans and for anyone keeping score, they don’t have the best track record. Fans want you to win every year and have a tough time telling the difference between a 50 win and 40 win season. When a franchise is rebuilding fans tend to only see in the present, not realizing that winning 30-odd games for two or three seasons may enable a team to consistently win 50+ games a season for a decade. When franchise players are performing well, they’re the best in the world. If that player has a bad game, the whole team is crap and a bunch of “I told you so’s” get thrown around.

Everyone is allowed to be a cynic, but don’t listen to them! The person toting that “The end is neigh” sign downtown will be right eventually, but it doesn’t make them a prophet.

There are smart people in charge of this team. This season was a bit of a wake up call and now they need to stop for a moment and analyze the situation they spent themselves into. Start by rebuilding your farm team by stocking it full of decent prospects, the rest will fall in line naturally.

It might not be this year or the next, but Edmonton has the potential to achieve long term respectability, they just need to use their heads. Who knows, they may even be able to recapture a bit of the old glory days of the 80’s. It’s not that far fetched if the people involved don’t let the fans rush them.

~J

Somewhat Bold 2010 NHL Pre-Playoff Predictions

There comes a time in a person’s year where they predict something. “So-and-so will win the election” “I bet this movie sucks” “It’ll rain today”. All classic examples of predictions we make on a daily basis.

Tonight I’m going to make a few of my own.

But first a little backstory. Long time followers of this blog – or people who talk to me for any period of time in person – will know that I have a theory that the NHL is fixed hockey. At the head of the conspiracy is the league commissioner, and everyone from the owners to the refs to the players are – to varying degrees – in on it. There is one goal and that’s to increase the market share and foothold of the NHL in the USA. The NHL is run like a business. Correction, the NHL is a business.

It’s under that pretence that I bring you the following predictions:

– Atlanta will make the playoffs. If they don’t, they’ll make a strong push in the same vein of every Oiler franchise that ended the season two points outside of a playoff spot. It makes for exciting hockey on a local level, since the fans get to see and experience the story of the franchise that either just made it in or just missed it. Either way the story will speak of potential and potential puts asses in the seats.

– There will be at least one more major injury and questionable suspension.

– 4 Canadian teams will make it to the post-season. Calgary, Montreal, Ottawa and Vancouver.

– 1 of the Canadian teams that makes it to the post-season will make it to the second round. Vancouver.

– The Penguins and Capitals will meet in the Eastern Conference finals with the series going to Pittsburgh in six or seven.

– Antti Neimi will steal the starting job in Chicago away from Huet and the Hawks will ride a hot steak right to the Western finals where they’ll face. . .

– The Canucks, who just got out of a seven game slug fest against the “upstart” Coyotes. The Coyotes will use the deep playoff run to create buzz for the franchise and further entrench Bettman’s position on club relocation by selling a good portion of their season tickets for the 2010-2011 campaign.

– The Western Conference finals will go to the Hawks. Vancouver’s loss will be blamed on their long standing “choke-artistry”. The city will be pissed for a week, but eventually return to normal after some jackass who assaulted a Blackhawks fan is made an example of.

– The Blackhawks will meet the Penguins in the Stanley Cup finals; a meeting of the “previously mismanaged and at the edge of financial collapse, but now a model franchise” franchises. Bettman will crane his fingers in excitement from his box seats.

– Penguins will take it in five. Chicago’s downfall will be placed on Neimi’s shoulders and the media will cry, “Hah! We knew there was a goaltending situation in Chicago!” This’ll prompt one of two things: A: Chicago stands by their goalie under the guise “He’s only 25 and will only get better with more experience.” or B: Chicago will cut Huet’s contract a year early and try to sign a better goalie to split time with Neimi. Crosby will take the Conn Smythe.

If half of these predictions come true. I’m going to look into finding live feeds of the KHL. If only to change it up a little.

Give Me A Strike To The Head

TSN.ca ran an article titled: “NHL GM’s recommend that head shots be penalized”

No shit eh?

It took 30 GMs 3 days in Florida to draw the logical conclusion that by making the game of hockey faster, you increase the intensity of the open ice body checks and when someone gets hit in the head at those speeds it takes a guy a lot smaller than Scott Stevens to knock you the fuck out.

A few years too late in my opinion, but congrats all around on making progress. In the meantime I hope Marc Savard makes a strong recovery and puts this injury riddled season behind him. The Bruins on the other hand; you guys are in a bit of a situation. Good luck with that.

But this isn’t about the hits to the head. It’s about International hockey.

See what I did there? Roped you in and changed the subject.

The next Winter Olympics are Russian. If you didn’t know, they’ll be held in Sochi in 2014. I only bring this up because of the possible connection between the KHL, NHL and International Hockey. See, the thing is, Gary Bettman seems to be adamant that the NHL and NHLPA should withdraw its players from Olympic hockey. His case is remarkably rock solid, “it interrupts our season” “it’s hard for the NHL to regain momentum after a two week break” “if any of our players get injured it’ll be devastating to their NHL club” “in Sochi we will run unto numerous travel and fatigue issues” and a few others I’m unable to recall at the moment.

For once Gary makes a strong argument, but he seems to be overlooking a few important items. For instance, if the NHL withdraws, there are a host of NHL superstars who have already said that they’d void their NHL contract to play for their country in the Olympics. Can’t fault someone for being patriotic, really, if I were in their shoes and already had a couple million dollars under my belt, I’d do the same thing. In a heartbeat. Contract be dammed, there will always be a league that will sign me.

More importantly though, the KHL will be there. The KHL will be there in spades and you can be assured that Alexander Medvedev is going to fully utilize the opportunity to showcase the talent of his league. Of which, can you name five Canadians playing in the KHL? (Just working under the theory that a Canadian Olympic Ice Hockey team might not include NHLers.) I can only name four; Geoff Platt, Chris Simon, Jeff Glass and Kevin Dallman. And I only know those because of my time playing in numerous Fantasy Hockey leagues over the past decade. Russians on the other hand? How many good former NHLers can you think of that play in the KHL? Alexei Yashin, Alexei Zhitnik, Alexei Semenov, Sergei Brylin, Sergei Zubov, Andrei Zyuzin, Nikolai Zherdev, Sergei Fedorov, Alexander Radulov. . .

I can hear the debate now, “those players aren’t nearly as good as Crosby and Heatley” but the point is, if the Crosby’s and Heatley’s can’t go, the KHL is a very good resource for every other country to stock their Olympic team with.

This shouldn’t be about us verses them, but if you want to showcase North American hockey skill – I’m tossing the US into this mix, because they have even less to work with – the NHL needs to be represented. Otherwise while the rest of Europe is watching Canada lose to Latvia and the US to Kazakhstan, the NHL is going to look very bad and a bit selfish.

As for the issue of travel and fatigue. The NHL has been trying to gain a “foothold” in the European market for years now. Why else would we send our teams to start their seasons in Helsinki, Stockholm, Prague and London for the past three years if rest and fatigue were major issues?

I guess we’ll find out how dedicated to the NHL’s international survivability Mr. Bettman is when the current NHLPA CBA expires and it comes time to negotiate the Olympic participation portion of the new contract.

~J

Advice Content: Accept that you’re over a barrel here Mr. Bettman and embrace the tournament as a showcase of international hockey talent that’s been developed in the NHL. Or risk upsetting a lot of players. Just imagine what The Capitals would look like without Alexander Ovechkin, Semyon Varlamov and Alexander Semin, then picture the team’s average attendance diving.

A Healthy Dose of Update.

I’ve been away for a while. I let that three month test slide completely to the wayside. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. It was meant as a test and take it from someone who ‘tests’ things all day, tests and built to be broken.

So if the test is a moot point, why no posts?

Truth is, I’ve been busy. Between the new job (which is amazing) and the hockey league (Back-up Hockey – equally as amazing) I haven’t had much time to dedicate to writing. At one point I even purchased a notebook with the intentions of using it at work during periods of long load times. I find myself mindlessly surfing the Internet and replying to emails while I’m waiting for the PS3 to load the game. Oh The Playstation 3, the bane of my existence. How Sony managed to pull off the 180 it did it still well beyond me. This is a system I will never own and never encourage my friends to own. I’ll reserve that recommendation for my enemies.

I’ll stick to PC gaming in the meantime. Not that I’ve been gaming much lately. Not in the traditional sense anyways. I consider my work in the BuHL to be gaming of sorts, only the game is played over several years and doesn’t usually require the instant feedback that most video games require. I’m patiently waiting for Starcraft 2 to make it’s gallant appearance over the horizon. Then I’ll dive headlong into non-work-related gaming once again.

Part of the reason for the silence lately has been the lack of real hockey news. I could just as easily rant about The Phoenix Coyotes and how despite losing an estimated 60 million dollars last season (that 1.42 million dollars lost per home game) Gary I’m-a-twat Bettman believes that hockey could survive in the desert. I have one comment about it, then I’ll drop the subject altogether. If the Coyotes were in Canada and the same scenario was put forward, the team would be moved to the USA.

I feel like I’ve been at my creative best since starting this job. Never have I been in a work environment where this much creativity was encouraged. Imagine every decent coworker you’ve ever had grouped in one place, doing something the majority of them enjoy. That’s Bioware. Companies like TD wish they were able to sustain the atmosphere and moral Bioware is able to maintain; and most of it comes from the dropping of the old “all about the profits” business model. Not in a “The halls are lined with thousand dollar bills” sense, but in the “A happy worker is a productive worker” sense. A concept that old method businesses don’t seem to be able to grasp. Or at least take seriously–

Blah, I’ve lost my train of thought.

Advice before I sign off: Find a job you like and never stop looking until you find it.